Light up:Donald Trump might have Taylor Swift-kicked his chance to win Arizona

This column has been updated to fix a typo.

Not long after Taylor Swift endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president, Donald Trump went online and — channeling his fifth grade self (which is essentially no different than his 78-year-old self) — posted, “I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT.”

Swift, an actual grown-up who possesses actual class, did not respond with something like, “I’m rubber and you’re glue … .” She didn’t need to, since her endorsement led to 405,999 visits to the national voter registration site Vote.gov.

Trump and the members of his MAGA cult then derisively dismissed all things Taylor Swift.

Last week, however, USA Today reported that the data company Resonate, which uses an AI modeling system that, it says, “analyzes trillions of online interactions,” said that 2.3 million Americans in battleground states are among those who are more likely to be swayed by celebrity endorsements.

Among them, it said, were 161,000 Arizonans.

EJ MONTINI
Opinion: Donald Trump might have Taylor Swift-kicked his chance to win Arizona
Arizona might be one of those states where Swift’s endorsement of Harris and Trump’s ‘I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT’ response might backfire on him.
Portrait of EJ MontiniEJ Montini
Arizona Republic

This column has been updated to fix a typo.

Not long after Taylor Swift endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president, Donald Trump went online and — channeling his fifth grade self (which is essentially no different than his 78-year-old self) — posted, “I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT.”

Swift, an actual grown-up who possesses actual class, did not respond with something like, “I’m rubber and you’re glue … .” She didn’t need to, since her endorsement led to 405,999 visits to the national voter registration site Vote.gov.

Trump and the members of his MAGA cult then derisively dismissed all things Taylor Swift.

Last week, however, USA Today reported that the data company Resonate, which uses an AI modeling system that, it says, “analyzes trillions of online interactions,” said that 2.3 million Americans in battleground states are among those who are more likely to be swayed by celebrity endorsements.

Among them, it said, were 161,000 Arizonans.

Taylor Swift has a larger following than Trump

If true, it means Trump and his childish response might have delivered a Taylor Swift-kick to his chances of carrying Arizona in November.

Not that he shouldn’t have known that already.

In the days after Swift’s endorsement, polls showed that Republicans had a much higher negative reaction to Swift than they had before.

But this is a woman who has more than 550 million followers on different social media platforms.

An analysis of Google Trends data for 2023 found that Swift dominated Google searches more than anyone, including Trump.

According to a YouGov poll conducted this month, more than 53% of Americans — including 31% of Republicans — think Swift’s endorsement will help Harris.

Before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, the pollster and analyst Frank Luntz asked voters who would have the most influence on their vote. Trump was first at 38%. Biden second at 34%. In third was Swift at 25%.

MAGA attacks on Swift:Could cost Trump the election

Luntz was asked about Swift’s impact after Biden dropped out and Swift endorsed Harris.

He said, “This election will be decided by a few thousand votes in three or four key states, so everything matters. Will this be the deciding factor? Probably not. But will it have an impact? Most definitely.”

Former Republican and political strategist Rick Wilson, who co-founded the anti-Trump Lincoln Project Super PAC, said, “Taylor Swift represents a different category of celebrity than almost anyone under the sun. She’s sui generis (a fancy way of saying ‘unique’) in terms of the reach she has and her impact on young women, not to mention their fathers and mothers.”

If the Resonate analysis is correct, there may be as many as 161,000 such people in Arizona.

In a state where Biden beat Trump by only 10,000 votes, well … you do the math.